May Monthly Update

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May wasn't a good month for poker.  I played mostly 6 mans between multiple sites & ran pretty terrible.

Outside of poker we went to Winona a couple times for my brother Jason's bday & Mother's Day, went to a Twins game with 7 friends and went out afterwards, & went to a Tim McGraw/Luke Bryan concert.  For music I like a variety & listen to mostly rap, classic rock, & country.  I can't really think of what else I did in May.

My hours will likely be down during the summer, & especially during these 1st 2 months.  We already have plans for basically every weekend of the summer, which has been the case in recent years as well.  This month I also have a lot of relatives visiting & next month I'll be going camping for a week.  On top of that the weather is obviously very nice & I've been doing a lot to help out with my Lock referrals & answers questions about Lock on 2+2.  I likely won't be putting in 40 hour weeks regularely til the end of the summer or September.  I usually play less in the summer & more in the winer anyway.  I'm going to do my best though.

I am pretty confident that I can make some nice money on this year though once I get the proper roll online & start putting in my normal hours now that I'm playing exclusively on Lock & since I'm back to playing mostly HU.

As noted above I switched back over to mostly HU SNGs again, which has been my plan all along.  I'm currently 4-6 tabling HU STs between $40-$100, with the occasional 6 man ST thrown in.  Hopefully I'll have the roll on Lock to be back playing the highest stakes HU & 6 mans by next month.  It's a little frustrating as I have about $100K frozen between FTP & AP, money I need to get off other US sites like Cake, and most of my other money is invested in retirement accounts.  I do still have a good amount of money readily available but I'd prefer to save that for bills in case I have a bad run in poker.

It's been pretty comical playing under my real name on Lock (SN: JaredHubbard).  A lot of players don't know my real name.  It has been especially comical in HU where I see players who used to actively avoid me on FTP sitting me and berating me.  Then they'll mention my stats, which are mostly 6 man STs where half the ROI of HU STs probably isn't even sustainable, obviously leading to a ton of variance, and the sample size of small.  These are also players who clearly don't know how to use the advanced search tool on sharkscope.  If I'm playing somebody HU I search their HU NL Hold em stats only.  I don't care if they're the best 9 man SNG player in the world because they can still suck at HU.  Likewise, a player can suck at other forms of poker but be a phenomenal HU player.  I'm below EV in both 6 man & HU so far on Lock, but that will work itself out over the long run.

Holdem manager can't correctly recognize HU ST buy-ins on Merge and therefore the adjusted profit/ROI function does not  work for those games.  However, if you play these games there's still a good way to tell how you are running, aside from what you see in game & comparing it to your ROI in these games on other sites.  In HEM go to reports under tourney.  Then select the report Expected Value - By Stakes.  From there you will want to look at the bottom # in the bb/100 & EV bb/100 columns.  The bb/100 is your unadjusted # & the EV bb/100 is your adjusted #.  These are chip EV #s but HU is chip EV anyway so that doesn't matter.  Obviously if they EV bb/100 # is significantly higher than the bb/100 # then you're likely running below EV & vice versa.  1 thing to keep in mind is that this is going to give you a better idea of your average ROI, while the general adjusted ROI option gives you a better idea of your total ROI because it treats 1500 chips at a $100 buy-in the same as 1500 chips in a $20 buy-in, whereas adjusted ROI would give these chips a $ value based on the buy-in & prize structure.  As pointed out in this post: http://jhub3000.livejournal.com/#asset-jhub3000-90242 I tend to put more stock in average ROI than total ROI anyway.  Even when looking at adjusted ROI, a large amount of positive or negative variance at your highest stakes can make your total ROI look much better or worse than it will be in the long run, whereas avg. ROI averages everything out between the buy-ins.  If I see the stats of 2 players & don't know anything about their actual games:

Player x: 3,000 games, $100 avg. stake, 2% avg. ROI, -$2,000
Player y: 3,000 games, $100 avg. stake, 2% avg. ROI, +$2,000

I would give more credit to player x than player y, despite the fact that player x is down $2K & player y has $2K in profit.  It's pretty likely that player x has just ran below EV at his highest games, while player y has ran above EV in highest stakes games.  Total profit can be misleading & I'd rather put more stock in average ROI than total profit.  One trick for looking at sharkscope stats & trying to predict if a player has ran above or below EV is to multiply their avg. ROI by their avg. stake.  If this # is lower than their avg. profit then they're likely running above EV, particularly at their highest stakes.  If this # is higher than their avg. profit then they're likely running below EV, particularly at their highest stakes.  However, always tread carefully with regards to sample sizes.  Players can play thousands of games and still be 5% or occasionally more off of their true ROI due to variance.

I was formally introduced in an email to the other Lock Pros today along with the signing of 3 other players who I think will be great additions to the team.  I'll report who they are later.  My bio & picture should be up on the Lock website sometime soon & then my name will be in red while I'm playing so that I can look really, really, ridiculously cool.

Due to my confidentiality agreement with Lock, I will no longer be posting profits outside of those actually made directly at the tables for June and onward.

Gl at the tables,
Hub

Results:
May:
128.46 hrs
SNG Profit: -$7,392.45
Rakeback/Bonuses: $4,882.57
Total Monthly Profit: -$2,509.88

2011 AS OF MAY 31ST:
758.85 hrs
SNG Profit: $45,973.06
Rakeback/Bonuses: $58,248.08
Total Yearly Profit: $104,221.14

Year 2010:
1,759.11 hrs
SNG Profit: $134,514.80
Rakeback/Bonuses: $134,412.98
Total Yearly Profit: $268,927.78

Year 2009:
Hours: 1,577.65
SNG Profit: $(22,746.37)
Rakeback/Bonuses: $213,977.09
Total SNG Profit: $191,230.72
Staking: $42,219.80
Total Yearly Profit: $233,450.52

Year 2008 Online:
Hours: 1510.88
SNG Profit: $277,395.86
Rakeback/Bonuses: $178,589.61
Total SNG Profit: $455,985.47
Staking: $121,573.29
Total Yearly Profit: $577,558.76

Year 2007 Online:
Total Online Poker Profit: $251,388.84 (no staking in 2007)
Year 2006 Online:
about $65,000 playing on the side while in college


Career Sharkscope: Jared Hubbard 188,126 games, $3 avg. profit, $110 avg. stake, $594,866 total profit
Global Alias * Sharkscope is missing a lot of games from my career

Jared Hubbard

188,126

$3

$110

3%

$594,866

Jared Hubbard

188,126

$3

$110

3%

$594,866

Jared Hubbard

188,126

$3

$110

3%

$594,866