Monthly Update: February

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February took a bad turn.  After making over $47,000 in profit pre rakeback in January, I lost almost $22,000 pre rakeback in Fenruary.  March has been no different.

Here's my February adjusted EV graph.

As you can see in my adjusted luck graph, my EV was still good.  As you will see on my sharkscope graph, the HEM average stake is a little off, but my adjusted profit in February was $19,443, so I ran over $41,000 below EV on the month.  This is the frustrating part of playing a wide range of stakes.  Your overall profit is heavily influenced by a small sample of games at your highest stakes.  This can bring much higher than normal swings.  Thankfully, I think my mental game is pretty strong.  While I think everyone's game is at least slightly affected by huge downswings, the goal is to still play at a very high level.  I think I have done that, and my EV graph reflects that opinion.  I've certainly had worse downswings, and I'm sure I will have more that are just as bad or worse.  

I always hear of pros breaking laptops and other things when the cards go bad.  I've never even come close to doing such a thing.  In reality, variance is what makes the game so profitable.  If it weren't for variance, the bad players would never win, and would probably just choose not to play.  I think it's important to remind yourself of that when going through a downswing.  Thinking you don't deserve it isn't going to get you anywhere.  You need to worry about what you can control, and that's playing your best.  People always ask me how I deal with the emotions of the game.  That pretty much sums it up.  That said, it's still frustrating as a competitor, but the goal is to not let that frustration affect your play.

My sharkscope stats for February and for the year, as of today, as well as my 2012 sharkscope graph:

In March I'm down another $23,000 so far, so it's more of the same.  However, my luck adjusted yearly profit is almost $55,000.  That would be good for a $14K lead on the 2012 Merge any game by network leaderboard right now.  Thinking in terms of adjusted EV, rather than actual money won or lost is the best way to look at things.  It should all even out in the long run.

Here's my HEM 2012 adjusted EV graph.

Again, the HEM average stake is a little off but you get the picture.  The graph also understates how far I am running below EV, because it is based on average ROI, not total ROI.

I have talked in my blog a lot about how sitting other winning regs in HU SNGs can be very beneficial if you can get good enough and learn to beat them.  I still hear regs complain all the time when I sit them, claiming that neither of us is making any money and that I just have a big ego.  Well that simply isn't true.  Proof that sitting other winning regs in HU SNGs can be a +EV move is below.

HEM adjusted EV graph of other winning regs when playing me:

In HEM I created a global alias of every HU reg I can think of that I have ever played on Lock.  The global alias then combines the stats of all of these players.  I've certainly forgotten to include some people, but if I forgot a player I probably haven't played them much, and they're also probably a very low tier reg, meaning that including them would likely only make the results of the alias worse.  As you can see, I have played 2,471 HU SNGs against these winning regs this year, which is over 46% of my total games.  The regs have combined for a -3.9% ROI against me.  Considering that these stats include rake of 1.5%, this means that my adjusted ROI against them is 2.4.  My total adjusted ROI on the year is 2.6%, meaning that my adjusted ROI against non regs is probably somewhere around 2.8%.  That's only a 0.4% drop in ROI from playing randoms.  You may be thinking, well why would you want to play regs if your ROI is lower against them than against randoms?  The answer is simple, you don't have to wait to play regs.  They're sitting 1st and you just sit them.  This brings a huge increase to your games/hr, and ultimately to your hourly rate, which is what it's all about.  So far this year I'm getting in about 26 games/hour.  Considering my average stake is $400 and a lot of the time I will only be 1 to 2 tabling $500s or $1Ks because I don't sit lower while playing them and most people don't want to play more than 1 or 2 tables of them, I think that's a pretty high games/hr.

I'd also like to talk about why I think there's such a small difference between my ROI against randoms and my ROI against winning regs.  A simple assumption would be that I play very well against regs, but don't always maximize my equity against fish.  That may very well be true, but I think there's at the very least other reasons behind it.  When you play randoms you usually don't get to play them for very many games.  Often you play them once and then never see them again.  When this is the case you usually aren't able to develop very good reads on the player, and you're forced to go off of population tendencies.  Well, the range of styles and plays that a random will make in any given hand is pretty drastic, and going off of population tendencies isn't usually going to allow you to maximally exploit that each player individually.  

Then there's regs.  You are usually able to play regs in a lot more games, increasing your sample size of hands on them, therefore increasing the confidence that each play you make is correct against that player.  As two players play each other over and over the more skilled player is likely to gain an even bigger edge because they can get better reads and adapt their play to maximally exploit their opponent.  Even if a reg always declines a rematch and you don't play them much, the range in differences of style and play from one reg to the next is much smaller than it is of a random.  Many have pretty similar styles.  Therefore, going off what you consider to be the population tendency for a reg in any given play is going to be much closer to the 100% correct play than going off the population tendency for a random will be.

Another factor to consider when playing regs is that you are often playing them at multiple tables.  Playing one player at 3 tables is a lot easier than playing 3 different players on 3 tables.  Playing against only one player will allow you to focus a lot more and get better reads, which you can then use to maximally exploit them.

That brings me to another point.  Most of my HU SNGs I have played while 4-6 tabling.  Sometime in December I decided that I would try to usually play no more than 3 tables, considering that my average stake had increased, increasing the skill level of my average competition.  I felt that 3 tables was the optimal number for increasing my hourly rate.  However, I'm sometimes willing to make an exception.  One case where I'll make an exception is if a reg will 4-6 table me at reasonable stakes.  There's a couple reasons I will make an exception in this case.  As I have already stated, it's a lot easier to focus playing 1 player on 3 tables than 3 players on 3 tables.  Second off, in this case your opponent on every table is at the same disadvantage, that being a lack of focus, as you are.  I think I multi table about as anyone on Merge in HU SNGs, but I still would cap the number of tables I would play any given reg at 5 or 6 unless the games were $500+.  This is because I would always like to  stay registered for the $500s and $1Ks, considering how valuable they are.  Also, I'd obviously have to be pretty certain that I have a good edge on the reg, as I wouldn't stay registered for games under $500 if I was already playing 4 or more tables against a reg.

Hopefully this brought up some things you hadn't thought about or you at least found it interesting.

Lock has kicked off their first ever tournament series this month with great success.  The tournament series is called Poker Maximus and the schedule can be found here: http://thepokermaximus.com/poker-tournaments.html If you don't already have a Lock account, you can sign up here https://twitter.com/#!/jhubpoker for VIP benefits (http://jaredhubbard.com/lock%20vip.htm).  Also, be sure to enter the code LOCK150 for a 150% deposit bonus up to $750.  Lock accepts U.S. players.  We also recently launched our own cashier, separate from the Merge network so that you can withdraw and receive your money quickly.  Lock is running a rake race this month as well: http://lockpoker.eu/promos/rally-for-riches-race/

I plan on playing the $100+ Sunday Poker Maximus events when I can.  Last Sunday I played the $109 $175,000 guaranteed and the $215 $80,000 guaranteed high roller.  They didn't go too well.  In the $109 I lthink we were about 3 hours in and I 3bet an aggro button raiser with JJ.  He 4bet all in for 19BBs, which is obviously a snap call for me whether he's aggro or a nit.  He woke up with QQ and held.  A short time after I raised in MP with QJs and got 2 callers.  I'm thinking I probably had 15-20BBs.  The flop came something like J83 with 2 diamonds, giving me a monster with top pair, an overcard, and a flush draw.  I bet the flop and got 1 caller.  The turn was a brick.  I pushed all in for what was about a pot sized bet and got snap called by K8.  I was about an 80% favorite when we put the money in.  Unfortunately he rivered an 8 and I was out.  This play illustrates how soft the fields were though so sign up for Lock now!  #ShamelessPlug

In the $215 high roller I 3bet a very aggro MP raiser in the CO with 97.  He flatted out of position with J4s.  On the flop I hit middle pair and he check/called a gut shot.  The turn was checked and the turn and river came running 4s.  He led into me on the river for a large bet near the size of the pot.  Knowing what I knew about this player I expected him to almost always bluff a missed draw in this spot.  He also represented very little for value.  The only hand he really repped well for value was a flopped straight or trip 4s.  Both were pretty unlikely, especially the trips considering he would have had to call a 3bet out of position with a 4 in his hand & then check/call the flop with a 4 in his hand.  He also couldn't expect me to have a big hand considering how the hand played out but I wasn't sure if he would actually think that through.  I decided that the vast majority of his range was missed draws, and I was getting a great price on the call at about 2:1 considering the makeup of his range.  I called and lost a large chunk of my stack.  Later I picked up in the CO with a stack of about 18BBs.  Considering there were antes in play, I think this would be a reasonable spot to just open shove in an MTT.  However, the 3 players behind me were all aggressive 3bettors and I was 90% sure that none of them would flat if I made a standard raise of 2.25x the BB.  Considering this info, the clear play was obviously to 2.25x raise/call instead of open jam.  If I open jam I will never get a better hand to fold, but I will often fold out hands I dominate like smaller pairs, and hands like 76s & A5s.  If I 2.25x the small pairs are reshoving almost every time and considering the players behind me, I expect some other stuff I dominate to reshove as well.  I opened to 2.25x and just as I expected the button 3bet me.  He and the blinds had larger stacks so 3bet shoving would have been an overbet for him, but making a standard 3bet does the same thing vs me, since he knows I'm never going to flat a 3bet at that stack.  I shoved and the button showed up with 99 and held.  GG

Hopefully the hand analysis made things a little more interesting.  It's something I'm willing to do with MTT hands since I play so few MTTs, but not something I'm willing to do with HU SNG hands.

I will be playing the $1,000 Minnesota State Poker Championship this Sunday at Canterbury Park.  It will be the first live poker tournament I have played since winning the Canterbury Fall Classic Main Event for $70,769 (http://www.mnpokermag.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/NovemberIssue2.pdf).  Back to back live tournament wins?

I wrapped up my February promotion (http://www.easiestpokersites.com/lock-poker-elite-pro-jared-hubbard-challenges-fans-to-heads-up-battle) with success.  I was 26-10 in the HU matches for the promotion.  My favorite answer to the trivia questions goes to Mikey Vee on facebook.  The question was: What injury was I rehabbing from when I started my first online poker account?  He replied with "swollen vagina."  Well played sir.  Well played.

Below is a review of all of the daily trivia questions from the promo and a list of the people who beat me in the HU games at the bottom:

What was my online profit in 2007? ($251,388.84)

What is the name of my dog and who is he a fan of? (Gunnar – Twins)

Where was my most recent Live Tournament win? How much did I take down? (Canterbury Fall Classic - $70,769)

When did I turn pro? (2007)

How much have I earned in rakeback to date? ($640,000)

What is the symbol of my sponsor Lock Poker?

diamond

What did I say in my interview with DALEROXXU about what my first deposit was when I started? ($50)

Feb 8 Trivia ?: In 4 years of playing 6 man SNGs, how many years did I lead the world in total profit pre rakeback?

3

Feb 9 Trivia ?: Who won most of my money in my last losing #poker session?

Mrvenom

Feb 10 Trivia ?: What was my screen name on Absolute Poker?

Cutiepie85

Feb 11 Trivia ?: What's my favorite TV show of all time?

Dexter

Feb 12 trivia?: What players were #1 & #2 on 2008 sharkscope any game 5 to 6 players any stakes lb? List screen name & site.

1.     Jhub3000, Pokerstars 2. Jhub3000, Cake

Feb 13 trivia?: What injury was I rehabbing from when I started up my 1st online #poker account?

Torn Achilles tendon

Feb 14 Trivia ?: What's my wife's name & when did we get married?

Paula: August 8^th, 2009

2/15 Trivia ?: Name 1 real life example I compared the tyraak situation to in today's blog.

Dropping a wallet on the street, etc…

2/16 Trivia ?: What company designs my website & created this trivia promotion?

PokerFacePR

2/17 Trivia ?: What stakes did I say start playing #poker at online in my Poker verdict interview? 

$1 & $2 SNGs

‎2/18 trivia?: In my interview w/ PokerUpdate what did I say is the main difference between online & live?

Online is much more aggressive

‎2/19/12 Trivia?: Before becoming a professional #poker player, what was my major in college?

Business administration

2/20 Trvia ?: In my Interview w/ PokerLizard how many SNGs did I say I play at a time?

10-16

2/21 Trivia?: In my interview w/ PokerWorks how did I say I handle bankroll management? 

100-200 buy-ins online

2/22 Trivia?: Fill in the blank: In STTs I stated: After 3,000 games you are x likely to be within x of your true ROI

90%, 5%

2/23 trivia?: In my interview on Tourneyblog what did I list as my interests outside of #poker ?

Sports, fantasy football, camping, fishing, working out.

2/24 trivia?: What city did my US Poker Bowl team represent? hint: PokerVerdict

San Diego (meaning a whales vagina according to Ron Burgundy)

2/25 trivia?: In my PokerVerdict interview what book did I say revolutionized the way I play #poker?

Harrington on Hold em

2/26 trivia?: Who was on my US #Poker Bowl team?

Alex Jacob, Shaun Deeb, Thayer Rasmussen, Peter Feldman, Jordan Morgan

2/27 trivia?: What games did I mostly play on Pokerroom? Hint: PokerNewsBoy

5 handed SNGs

2/28 trivia?: In my interview w/ #Poker Verdict what 5 adjectives did I say best describe me?

Sarcastic, motivated, loyal, easy going, dedicated

‎2/29 trivia?: In my Parttime #Poker interview name 1 player that I said reviewed my games as I was learning SNGs.

Atomicdog239, MikeMcQ1, Newt_Buggs, BigJoe2003

Realchaser74

WannaSnuggle

CAN_D_MAN

Lilstealth

@joeaugie

Matt Miller

Erik Heights (2 wins)

Marc Alioto

@j_lude_obv

Mark Hoke

I had a question about labels on blogspot.  If you know the answer just let me know.  I was wondering if you put spaces in a label if it still works.  For example, does the label online poker work, or do you need to put onlinepoker?  I couldn't find the answer on google.

Thanks & GL,

Jared

http://www.jaredhubbard.com/

http://twitter.com/jhubpoker

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Jared-Hubbard-Poker/221586851240049

http://jhubpoker.blogspot.com/

Happy New Year! 2011 Year in Review

If you like my blog please click the BlogTopList vote button to the right. This will give my blog a better ranking & help increase traffic to my blog. Thanks.

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1. Clear cookies & internet history
2. Either click the banner above or 1 of the following links:

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After signing up please make sure jhub3000@hotmail.com is listed as a safe sender in your email. You can also email me with any questions. Before you begin playing on Lock, or even if you already do play on there, you will probably want to read this post about optimizing the software: http://jhubpoker.blogspot.com/2011/06/making-most-out-of-lock-pokers-software.html

For daily updates & other ramblings please follow me on twitter http://twitter.com/#!/jhubpoker


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I started the year 16 tabling 6 man ST SNGs on FTP.  I still wasn't playing as many of the $300+ games because I didn't think enough +EV games ran to really bother with the extra variance.  I ran pretty below EV in the 6 mans but still made a good amount of money in rakeback.

In February I started to study HU.  For the time being it would help me HU in my 6 man games, but the idea was that I would evenutally switch over to HU SNGs full time.  Making the switch to HU SNGs is something I should have done a long time ago, but I was too big of a change nit.  While I crushed HU in 6 mans, the competition was usually very weak when it came to HU poker.  6 man SNG players are pretty awful at HU in general.  If I wanted to crush HU SNGs I had work to do.  Around mid March I started to play some HU SNGs part time, starting w/ $50s & $100s, and quickly starting $200s & $300s shortly after.  I had studied my ass off and was definitely ready, although I still had plenty to learn before I could crush the highest levels.  I played well and ran well starting out, making over $13K pre rakeback playing HU SNGs part time for 2 weeks in March.  As I played more and talked to more HUSNG players, I learned that high stakes is mostly about being able to open sit and not get sat by other regs.  Not many regs sat me, I was already much improved, and I clearly had the bankroll, so about a week after starting HU I began to play some $500s.  Toward the end of March I had started to play $1Ks.  In April I started playing HU SNGs full time, rarely playing any 6 mans.  I made another $22K+ pre rakeback playing HU for 15 days in April.

Then came the infamous Black Friday.  I got about $88K frozen on FTP & about $12K on AP.  At first, I was really only only worried only worried about how I would be able to continue to make a healthy living.  I was pretty sure I would get my money from Full Tilt & wasn't really too worried about losing $12K.  FTP was so reputable and it didn't make sense for them not to pay US players when they still had a ton of non-US players as customers.  I considered going to Canada a few days a week to play online, and even discussed the possibility of moving to Costa Rica or another country with my wife.

Obviously as the FTP saga developed, my opinion on getting my money back changed.  However, I still wasn't overly worried.  I had invested my money and if I lost the $100K I would just look at it as having made $100K less during my career.  That's still some pretty nice career earnings.  Whether to large amounts of money on an online poker site is a simple risk vs reward problem.  Keeping a large roll online allowed me to play the highest stakes games.  I earned enough extra income from my higher stakes games that I was essentially freerolling the $100K I lost on Black Friday, as I had clearly made far more than an extra $100K because of keeping the roll online to play high stakes.  That said, if it had been a month earlier, I probably would have had $70K less online.  I hadn't been maintaining a high average stake in 6 mans, whereas in HU I had been playing $1Ks, which require a large bankroll because of the swings.  I still think I could have been a little more cautious and kept about $50K less online.  If my online roll got really low I'm sure I probably would have been able to get money online.

After Black Friday, I fiddled around with 6 mans on Cake and Bodog for a while.Then I went to Lock Poker on the Merge network and the traffic was surprisingly good for a US site post Black Friday. I started playing 6 mans there as well.  I was talking to LiarzDice on AIM and he said that he knew the owner of Lock and thought I was worthy of a pro deal. He introduced us through email.  I pitched myself to the owner and Eric Lynch, and within a couple weeks I signed a contract as a Lock Elite Pro.  Lock has since become the largest US site accepting US players.

Since I had stopped playing 6 mans, I was curious how the top 5 all time single table SNG sharkscope total profit list looked when combining player screen names from all sites.  In late May I put together the list.  Here's how it looked:

All Time 5-10 Seated Sharkscope Total Profit (as of May 25, 2011)

1. jorj95: $814,309

Pokerstars

2. Jared Hubbard: $555,761

Global Alias

3. Spacegravy: $438,864

Pokerstars

4. Gramps: $435,038

Global Alias

5. Scoss: $434,183

Global Alias$179,425

I was #1 until 2009 when jorj95 decided he was going to become an absolute BEAST.  Congrats to him again.

In June I started playing HU on Lock.  At the time, the highest stake on Lock for HU STs was $254.  Lock's HU ST structure starts with 30BBs, which I think I like better than 25BBs because it is still quick and good for hourly rate, but allows your opponents to make even bigger mistakes.  My HU game was definitely rusty at 1st, especially when playing tougher regs like phmerc and skilled_sox, but I worked on it and improved.  In late September Lock added $500 & $1K HU STs, which was very exciting.  

In October, Lock's CEO Jennifer Larson was kind enough to rent out an entire castle in France for the 1st ever Lock retreat.  I won't go into any details since this has already been done, but if you missed it, here's a couple links: http://jhubpoker.blogspot.com/2011/07/july-update-lock-pro-retreat.html & http://jhubpoker.blogspot.com/2011/10/september-monthly-update-lock-pro.html

When we got back from the Lock Pro retreat I played some Canterbury Fall Classic events for a change of pace, which is the biggest live tournament series in Minnesota.  I played 5 events total.  Before the main event I didn't cash in anything, although I had a nice stack going and bubbled the $500 6 max event.  I ended up winning the $1K main event for a little under $71K.  It was only the 13th live poker tournament I've ever played, and also my 1st cash.  It sure felt good after Black Friday.  You can read more about the win here: http://jhubpoker.blogspot.com/2011/10/2011-canterbury-fall-classic-main-event.html

Up until November I was 4-6 tabling HU and mixing in some 6 mans.  In November I stopped playing 6 mans.  I focused only on HU and had a monster month, making over $61K pre rakeback.  The $500 & $1K action was ridiculously good, with one monster fish accounting for over half of my profit.  

Please click image to enlarge.  My HU stats for the year:

The biggest change I can think of now compared to pre Black Friday is that I rarely play mornings anymore.  I have to play a lot more nights.  Before April 15th I basically worked around my wife’s schedule.  While I certainly wasn’t maximizing my hourly or anything, I was still able to make a ton of money and live a nice balanced life.  Now most of the players are from the US so it’s tough to get good action in the mornings.  I still play during some dead times, which I think is a must if you want to live a balanced life, but a lot of the time when my wife works a morning shift and goes to bed I will start playing & then play late and sleep in.  It’s what most single poker players do normally but it’s a change for me.

I led the entire Merge network in Sharkscope SNG profit this year, with almost double the profit of the 2nd place player.  Running above EV definitely widened the gap between myself and 2nd place, but I would have still finished #1 running at neutral EV.  Needless to say, the transition to HU SNGs has gone pretty smoothly.  I've had people tell me they're amazed at how I got so good at HU so quickly.

Please click image to enlarge

Despite Black Friday and putting in my lowest # of hours in a year as a professional poker player, I had my 2nd best year in terms of total profit.  Making almost $143K pre rakeback between October and November helped out with that.  When you just look at the number without thinking, 1,395.76 hours sounds like a lot, but that's less than 35 40 hour weeks.  That's like taking 1/3 of the year off completely.  Now that I'm playing HU I'm not sure that my total playing hours will be higher next year, but I'll be spending plenty of other hours on poker-related activities like studying, and social media in an effort to promote Lock and myself as a player.

Please click images to enlarge

Here's the media on me this year:

http://pokerupdate.com/interviews/lock-poker-s-jared-hubbard/

http://www.mnpokermag.com/2011/10/31/farmington-mans-poker-success-is-more-than-a-lucky-streak/

http://www.mnpokermag.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/NovemberIssue2.pdf

http://www.anteupmagazine.com/issue/ante-up-magazine-november-2011.htm

http://pokernewsboy.com/interviews/jared-hubbard-talks-with-pnb-about-his-career-and-changes-since-black-friday/10196

http://www.pokerxfactor.com/podcast.htm

For more of my media, please visit http://www.jaredhubbard.com/#/media/4554797893

My Favorites of the Year:

Comedy Movie: Horrible Bosses

Kevin Spacey's character was absolute money and Colin Farrel's was pretty damn funny too.  I can't think of anything that really competes here.

Non comedy movie: nothing really jumps out here...Tv series are way better than movies anyway

Best TV Series: Dexter

It's hands down the best show on TV.  The beginning of this season wasn't as good as the past seasons but the end of the season was epic, as usual.  I wouldn't have a beef with anyone arguing for Boardwalk Empire here.

Best Comedy TV Series: Curb Yoour Enthusiasm

It's my favorite comedy series of all time and it gets better every season.  Larry David is a comedic genius.  Please make more episodes!

Best Rap Album: Jay-Z & Kanye West: Watch The Throne

The album wasn't really as good as I expected from these 2, but it's tough to not have a really good album when Jay-Z and Kanye are teaming together.  I don't really think this one is that close.  I guess the Eminem & Royce Da 5'9 CD deserves consideration but that's about it.  Lil Wayne is overrated and his newest CD was highly overrated.  Hell, I'd take Nicki Minaj's CD over Lil Wayne's CD in a heartbeat, and she's a female rapper.  Oh yeah, Drake is overrated too, although he's probably the best of the next generation of rappers, which is pretty sad.  The fact of the matter is rap gets worse every year.  Once Eminem, Jay-Z, & Kanye retire rap is going to get even worse, unless somebody else comes along, but I'm doubting it considering what rap has turned into with some of the new guys.

Best Rap Song: Jay-Z & Kanye West: Ni**as In Paris

There really weren't a lot of great rap songs this year.  I'd actually give the top 3 to Jay-Z and Kanye, with H.A.M. & Otis being in my top 3 as well.  Jay-Z & Kanye might have a couple other songs I'd put in the top 10 too.  I know I'd definitely put Gotta Have It in there.  I would put Lil Wayne's Mirror up there, but let's be honest, it would probably be the 10th best song on most Eminem albums.

Best Country Album: Eric Church: Chief

There's a lot of good songs on this CD.  My favorites are creepin', drink in my hand, homeboy, Jack Daniels, & Springsteen, in no particular order.  Kenny Chesney's CD was reasonable but his new music simply doesn't match his old music.  Brad Paisley is a little too obsessed with guitar solos for me, although he does come out with some good songs.

Best Country Song: Luke Bryan: Country Girl (Shake It For Me), Jake Owen: Barefoot Bluejean Night, Eric Church: Homeboy

Pick any one of them.  It all depends what mood I'm in.

Best Rock Album: None.  Rock died 20 years ago.  At least classic rock was so good that it never gets old, because there sure as hell isn't any new stuff coming out.

Best Rock/Alternative song: Foster The People: Pumped Up Kicks

I don't listen to enough new rock or alternative to even have an opinion on this, but I like this song a lot.

Santa & Mrs. Claus made a surprise visit to my mom's house on Christmas Eve:

For an individual look at each of my other 4 years as a professional poker player please see these posts:

2007: http://jhubpoker.blogspot.com/2011/12/new-series-look-back-year-in-review.html 

2008: http://jhubpoker.blogspot.com/2011/12/look-back-year-in-review-2008.html

2009: http://jhubpoker.blogspot.com/2011/12/look-back-year-in-review-2009.html

2010: http://jhubpoker.blogspot.com/2011/12/look-back-year-in-review-2010.html

We had a New Year's party this year, which was a great time.  We got a keg of Amstel Light and had plenty of mixed drinks & shots.  About 30 or 40 people showed.  We might make it a yearly tradition.

2011Results:

1,395.76 hours played

Pre Rakeback SNG Profit: $165,048.78

Live MTTs: $68,209

Total Pre Rakeback/Sponsorship Profit: $233,257.78

Thanks & GL,

Jared

http://www.jaredhubbard.com/

http://twitter.com/jhubpoker

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Jared-Hubbard-Poker/221586851240049

http://jhubpoker.blogspot.com/

The 2011 Canterbury Fall Classic Main Event Champion is: Me

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I figured I'd do a quick post because I won the Canterbury Fall Classic Main Event here in MN yesterday for almost $71K.  It was a $1K buy-in with 293 entrants.  I was chip leader from 66 people down to the end of day 1, which was 30 people. 

On day 2 I was usually top 3 in chips or so.  I started the day as the chip leader w/ 492K chips, which was a little over 60BB, but 2nd had 360K chips so effective stacks were all 45BB or less, & that's without factoring in antes.  Some guy was trying to get an even chop w/ 20 people left, leaving some money for 1st, 2nd, & 3rd to play for, which I thought was pretty lol. 

I got home sometime after 2am following day 1 & day 2 began at 1pm.  When I went to bed I started to feel like shit.  I spent much of the night either laying in bed not being able to sleep because I felt so awful or making trips to the bathroom attempting to puke.  At about 4am & then about 8am I puked my brains out.  This was all great timing considering I had a big day 2 coming up with a lot of money to be won, and I had gotten very little rest & felt like shit.  After waking up I found out that my brother was also sick.  Considering we both had chicken tender melts the night before I was pretty sure it was some sort of food poisoning.

Once the final started there were 4 of us who were all pretty close in chips for the top spot.  I still felt like complete ass.  I managed to eat a small bowl of chicken noodle soup before leaving for the event.  The same guy again offered a chop, leaving money for 1st, 2nd, & 3rd.  Unless somebody else neglected to speak up I was the only person who refused a chop.  I'm sorry but I'm just not going to do chops, & I'm sure as hell not gonna chop when I'm completely getting hosed on the deal.  The pay jumps are a lot bigger to most people, so I understand that they want a chop, but at least offer something reasonable, which I would turn down anyway.  At the final table everything went pretty well.  I lost some pots, which any pot at this point was a sizeable portion of anyone's stack, but I always managed to stay in 1 of the top spots.  There were a lot of awkward stack sizes behind me for most of the final table, which significantly altered my strategy. 

On 1 sick hand I was BB & the aggressive button w/ about 30BB raised, the nitty SB re-raised, & I had AKs w/ about 30BB as well.  I didn't have to think and pushed all in.  The original raiser, who was now 3 & 4 bet, tanked.  A 4bet is usually really strong but he also had to factor in the dynamics of Btn, SB, BB play.  He ended up calling.  The SB, now facing a 4bet and a call, also tanked.  After much thought he folded.  We flipped up our cards & he the button had AKo.  The SB, not happy, declared that he folded AKs.  The button flopped a runner runner flush draw but we chopped.  This was the only hand I was all in for all of my chips the entire tournament.  There were some very sick spots in this hand but I think everyone probably made the correct play.  My decision was easy.  The button had kind of a sick spot but considering stack sizes & the button, sb, bb dynamic I think AKo is probably a call there.  The SB was facing a 4bet and a call.  He can't expect to see AQ from the button, so he surely isn't in a dominating position, and considering the action the chances that 1 of us has AA or KK or 1 have QQ and the other AK (discounting his outs) are significantly increased.  I think I fold in that spot too, although my opinion could definitely change facing really loose/hyper aggressive players. 

My only 3 outer of the tournament occured when I raised AQs in early position & the chop guy w/ less than 10bb reshoved in late position.  He was a nit & I knew I was crushed but I had a trivially easy call as I was getting damn near 2:1 pot odds.  He probably had about 1/4th of my stack.  I called & flipped over KK.  An ace binked on the flop.  He was pissed, probably even moreso since I was the one who declined the chop, & just walked away without wishing anybody good luck.

When we were down to 4 handed I probably had about 40-45% of the chips in play and had some nice spots.  3 handed the SB raised my BB w/ about 20bb & I reshoved QJ.  He didn't seem happy about it but he called w/ TT.  Personally I would have been pretty happy to get my money in w/ TT 3 handed bvb against a reshove, as a lot of hands you dominate are reshoving & some hands that dominate you probably aren't reshoving.  I binked and he was left w/ about 1BB, getting eliminated on the next hand. 

When we got down to HU I probably had about 3:1 chip lead w/ and my opponent had 20-25BBs.  I mainly just chipped away at small pots as we never saw a river.  On 1 hand he made it 3.3x on the button (his standard raise size) w/ & I reshoved A9s.  He folded 44 face up.  That was the only re-raise of the match.  The blinds went up and a couple hands into the new level I picked up 99 on the button.  My opponent had 8-9BB & I hadn't shoved yet so I figured it would be a good spot to just continue w/ my standard 2x opening raise.  He flatted.  The flop came Qs6s3s & he shoved.  I didn't have a spade but I snap called as I think I'm way ahead of his range in that spot w/ those stack sizes.  He flipped over K6 w/ no spade & I was almost a 4:1 favorite to win the top prize & almost $71K.  My hand held.

Winning $71K in 1 tournament definitely lessens the sting of having $100K stuck from Black Friday a bit.  To MTT players this is pretty normal, but I've played 6 man SNGs most of my life, and now play mainly HU SNGs.  The most I'm going to win or lose in a day is probably $30K, and those days are rare.  While the money and exposure isn't that of winning a WSOP/WPT/EPT event, it's still nice.  After the tournament I did interviews w/ 2 poker magazines & am going to be on the cover of both:

http://www.mnpokermag.com/

http://www.mnpokermag.com/2011/10/16/jared-hubbard-wins-fpc-main-event-70769/

http://www.anteupmagazine.com/

I have always looked at the business side of poker so increased exposure is always nice.  My picture will also be in the rafters at Canterbury since it was the main event.  I think the Canterbury Fall Classic Main event might actually be the biggest 1st place prize in MN live poker considering there's no WPT events here. 

Before last Monday I hadn't played an MTT online or live in over a year.  I figured I'd play some Canterbury events when I got back from Europe as a nice change of pace.  I certainly wasn't playing them for the long run hourly rate as that's much higher online at Lock for me where I can play $1K HU SNGs.  I played Monday & Tuesday's $230 events but didn't get too much going.  On Thursday I played the $550 6 max event and was crushing my original table with about 100K in chips off of a 15K starting stack.  Our table broke & all of a sudden I was 2nd to last in chips at my table.  My table was full of big stacks.  I ended up taking 22nd (20 pay) when I reshoved about 16bb vs the button w/ 98s & he woke up w/ QQ.  In Friday's $550 event I didn't get too much going.  While I hadn't played an MTT in over a year, I certainly understand MTT strategy.  I'm a student of the game & I'm not going to go into an event if I don't think I have a significant edge.  I believe the this was my 13th or so live tournament.  I've considering getting into more though, mainly to increase my exposure and it can be a nice change of pace, so we'll see.

While I only put 1 bad beat on a player, and it was for only 1/4th or so of my chips, I was still very fortunate to have a lot of my hands hold & win also win some flips.  I just laugh at people who win an MTT & claim they didn't get lucky.  If it's an MTT w/ 1,000+ players that statement is simply laughable, but  even a tournament with a couple hundred players you need some luck.  The problem is that many players only look at 1 form of luck, and simply point to the fact that they always got their money in good.  However, there's many other forms of luck besides sucking out: winning more than 50% of flips, card distribution, table draw, and your position at the table relative to other good players are some that come to mind.  Personally I only had 1 big suckout, and probably didn't win more than 50% of my flips.  However, I think I had good card distribution & possibly good table draws, although I haven't played enough of these events to know what the average table draw looks like.

Thanks to my wife Paula, my brother Jeff (hubs89), my friend Andrew (vosh1313), and my friend Ryan (skapman33) for boring themselves watching live poker on day 2 to support me.

http://www.canterburypark.com/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=ucTrz730FNU%3d&tabid=146

They wanted me to wear a Canterbury shirt for the picture so I had to take off my Lock shirt but I obviously look way cooler in my Lock gear so my wife took a picture of me that way:

Fellow Lock Elite Pro Matt Stout's blog of the Lock retreat part 1:

http://stoutpoker.com/?p=415