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Since we've had a month to review the new landscape of online poker in the US & adjust our expectations I figured I'd make a post.
First off, I think there's still plenty of profit to be made in SNGs. If the games continued to run exactly as they do today I'd estimate my hourly at somewhere between $60 & $145, most likely somewhere in the middle of those 2 #s. While that's certainly a lot lower than the $130-$300/hr I've grown accustomed to, it's also nothing to sneeze at. Most people in the world would be ecstatic to make that much money, especially for playing a card game. Top SNG players will probably end up making more in rakeback than actual profit at the tables. Traffic is down & ROIs are down, but the sky hasn't fallen, just like it hadn't fallen when the UIGEA was passed & everyone went into extreme panic mode on the forums. We've had it made as professional online poker players over the last several years, and the reality is many players will still have it made, just to a lesser degree. That said, some players who previously were able to make a living off of poker simply won't be able to do so anymore, as hourly rates have been cut. Moreover, slow withdrawls may become the industry norm, & those living paycheck to paycheck may not be able to be patient throughout this process. I feel for those people, especially in today's job market. Whether you're still a pro with reduced wages or a former pro looking for a job, I wish you all the best.
I've certainly had to make adjustments since April 15th. There used to be plenty of games to go around for me, my bro, & a couple friends I coached without us having to work around each other's schedules much. That simply isn't the case anymore if you want to come close to maximizing your hourly. My brother Jeff & I work around each other's schedules as much as we can. We might still end up playing at the same time 10 hours a week and just each take certain buy-in levels to play. voss1313 has moved to cash games on Cake because of this issue. I used to mostly work around my wife's schedule. She works in a hospital & works a lot of different shifts. That simply isn't the case anymore. A lot of the hours she works there simply isn't enough traffic to at least come close to maximizing my hourly, as there aren't as many Europeans on the sites I play now. Then there's the issue of working around my bro. My schedule in a given week before April 15th might look something like this with breaks during the shifts:
Sun: 10a-noon
Mon: 7a-4p
Tue: noon-9p
Wed: 8a-5p
Thur: 2:45p-11:45p
Fri: 10a-2p
Sat: 10a-noon
Now it looks something like this:
Sun: 10p-4a
Mon: 2p-7p, 10p-4a
Tue: 2p-6:30p, 10p-4a
Wed: 2p-4p, 7p-2a
Thur: 4:30p-2a
I used to pretty much always go up to bed at the same time as my wife. We'd watch a TV show or the news before bed. I def like watching TV before bed. Now I finish playing, do some stuff on the computer for an hour and try to sneak into the bedroom without waking my wife at 5am, unless it was a weekend where we might go to bed at the same time. That is unless it's today. My wife works the early shift & is upstairs showering while I type a blog at 4:30 am. My 4 legged son just came into my office & probably has to take a growler so I better go let him outside.
Conclusion: Online poker in the US is not dead. Many of you who made a living playing poker before Black Friday will continue to do so. Others can still play online poker as a 2nd source of income. We've known for years that online poker in the US wasn't the most stable industry since our government is ran by Nazis w/ no idea how to set priorities. If you didn't save as much money as you could before Black Friday, learn your lesson & start saving now. Instead of spending half your annual income on a car, make an investment. Be smart & you'll probably be ok.
A lot of people have been asking me when Cake is adding 300 chip 6 man/9 man hyper turbo SNGs & 500 chip HU hyper turbo SNGs. The truth is I don't know. They were originally going to be adding them in April. However, they seem to have shifted their priorities. I have urged them to make this a top priority as much as I can. Due to their popularity I think adding these structures should be the #1 priority in terms of SNG changes. However, I just have a deal w/ Cake. I don't work for them. While they often listen to my suggestions, they certainly don't have to. While I'm pretty sure they still plan on adding these structures, I don't really know where it ranks on their priority list. If you want these structures I would recommend emailing
support@cakepoker.com. If a lot of people email maybe they'll realize the demand for these games is huge & they need to be a top priority.
GL,
Hub
My results by year:
Year 2010:
1,759.11 hrs
SNG Profit: $134,514.80
Rakeback/Bonuses: $134,412.98
Total Yearly Profit: $268,927.78
Year 2009:
Hours: 1,577.65
SNG Profit: $(22,746.37)
Rakeback/Bonuses: $213,977.09
Total SNG Profit: $191,230.72
Staking: $42,219.80
Total Yearly Profit: $233,450.52
Year 2008 Online:
Hours: 1510.88
SNG Profit: $277,395.86
Rakeback/Bonuses: $178,589.61
Total SNG Profit: $455,985.47
Staking: $121,573.29
Total Yearly Profit: $577,558.76
Year 2007 Online:
Total Online Poker Profit: $251,388.84 (no staking in 2007)
Year 2011: Time will tell.
