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Friday, May 27, 2011

Good News for FTP: 1/3 of Funds Unfrozen by the DOJ

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See the article below:
http://www.egrmagazine.com/news/1667072/exclusive-first-full-tilt-account-unfrozen.thtml

Personally I think they should just figure out some sort of max withdrawl # that makes sense & allow players to withdraw immediately.  However, at least it's a step toward us being able to withdraw our funds.

Please Help Pressure Merge to Change Their 6 Player Super Turbo SNG Structure

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I made the following post on 2+2 in the Carbon, Lock, & RPM suggestion/feedback threads located in the internet poker forum.  If you agree with my suggestions please quote them on 2+2 & type +1 or email them to your Merge support.  The links to the 2+2 threads are at the bottom of the post:

I really think Merge needs to add some blind levels to their 6 player STs. Considering how ridiculously fast it is right now & how reg infested the games are I'm not even sure if better than 0% is sustainable at medium/high stakes. If top players can't get better than 0% then weaker players will likely go busto pretty fast & no longer be paying rake to the network. I also know of players that were ST regs on FTP that won't even play the current Merge ST structure.  500/1K blinds w/ 6K chips in play is pretty lol, but that's a regularity of the current structure.

Suggestions for blind levels:

50/100
60/120
80/160
100/200
130/260
175/350

Something like that would get the average stack sizes pretty close to the FTP structure. Even just adding level 2 & 3 would be a huge improvement over the current structure.  I would suggest just copying the FTP structure exactly but considering the changes Merge made to their HU structure I assume they want the blinds to be different.

Assuming 6 players, here's a comparison of the current Merge structure ST vs the FTP structure.
Blind Level: Merge avg stack vs FTP avg stack
1. 10bb vs 10bb
2. 5bb vs 7.5bb
3. 3.3bb vs 6bb
4. 2.5bb vs 5bb
5. 1bb vs 3.75bb
6. 0.7bb vs 3bb

As you can see, the differences are quite extreme.  Top players at medium/high stakes generally sustain a 1-2% ROI.  That's in a slower structure and games that are less reg infested.  I think it's pretty clear something needs to be changed here. 

If they keep the structure I think they need to lower the rake. Something like $50+$1.50 instead of $50+$2 would be more reasonable. I think I'd just prefer a better structure w/ the same rake though.

Thanks,
Hub

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/28/internet-poker/official-carbonpoker-support-thread-us-international-players-welcome-mac-friendly-762175/index603.html

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/28/internet-poker/lock-poker-lockpoker-982657/index86.html

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/143/rpm-poker/rpm-poker-suggestion-box-472780/index69.html

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Sharkscope Single Table Total Profit Year by Year & Full Time

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This is something I put together for me new website that will hopefully be up in the near future.  I will be moving my blog there adding more sections like poker news.  If there's anything you'd like to see on the website please let me know.  I won't be giving direct in game strategy though.

The following #s are based on sharkscope.com searches. Some players block their stats & others play on multiple sites where their screen names aren't publicly known. For this reason, there may be people that actually belong on the list but aren't listed.  In the future I may add a 5-6 seated section, a HU section, and expand the all time list to top 10.

2007 5-10 Seated Total Profit:

1. Gramps:
Global Alias
2. infamouspade: $169,101
Pokerstars
3. Jared Hubbard: $147,405
Global Alias
4. Hassan: $127,538
Pokerstars
5. Nordberg: $112,443

2008 5-10 Seated Total Profit

1. Jared Hubbard: $272,491
Global Alias
2. DDbeast: $194,703
Global Alias
3. Kenny05: $172,464
Global Alias
4. Scoss: $137,915
Global Alias
5. azntracker: $108,912
Pokerstars

2009 5-10 Seated Total Profit

1. jorj95: $466,347
Pokerstars
2. chapmoney: $198,411
Global Alias
3. Gramps: $139,596
Global Alias
4. azntracker: $96,834
Pokerstars
5. Kenny05: $95,326
Global Alias

2010 5-10 Seated Total Profit

1. jorj95: $198,410
Pokerstars
2. leoc00: $165,376
Global Alias
3. Josselthekiller: $143,730
Global Alias
4. Jared Hubbard: $131,354
Global Alias
5. Spacegravy: $128,667
Pokerstars

All Time 5-10 Seated Total Profit (as of May 25, 2011)
1. jorj95: $814,309
Pokerstars
2. Jared Hubbard: $555,761
Global Alias
3. Spacegravy: $438,864
Pokerstars
4. Gramps: $435,038
Global Alias
5. Scoss: $434,183
Global Alias
$179,425

Monday, May 23, 2011

More Indictments

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More poker sites got indicted today:
http://www.subjectpoker.com/2011/05/more-gambling-domains-seized/

I guess 1 good thing is that TruePoker has decided to say F U DOJ & continue to serve US residents under a new domain.  If other sites are indicted I wouldn't be surprised to see more do the same since their traffic is mostly US players, whereas US players were only about 30% of the traffic on Pokerstars & FTP.

Monday, May 16, 2011

Black Friday: One Month Later

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Since we've had a month to review the new landscape of online poker in the US & adjust our expectations I figured I'd make a post.

First off, I think there's still plenty of profit to be made in SNGs.  If the games continued to run exactly as they do  today I'd estimate my hourly at somewhere between $60 & $145, most likely somewhere in the middle of those 2 #s.  While that's certainly a lot lower than the $130-$300/hr I've grown accustomed to, it's also nothing to sneeze at.  Most people in the world would be ecstatic to make that much money, especially for playing a card game.  Top SNG players will probably end up making more in rakeback than actual profit at the tables.  Traffic is down & ROIs are down, but the sky hasn't fallen, just like it hadn't fallen when the UIGEA was passed & everyone went into extreme panic mode on the forums.  We've had it made as professional online poker players over the last several years, and the reality is many players will still have it made, just to a lesser degree.  That said, some players who previously were able to make a living off of poker simply won't be able to do so anymore, as hourly rates have been cut.  Moreover, slow withdrawls may become the industry norm, & those living paycheck to paycheck may not be able to be patient throughout this process.  I feel for those people, especially in today's job market.  Whether you're still a pro with reduced wages or a former pro looking for a job, I wish you all the best.

I've certainly had to make adjustments since April 15th.  There used to be plenty of games to go around for me, my bro, & a couple friends I coached without us having to work around each other's schedules much.  That simply isn't the case anymore if you want to come close to maximizing your hourly.  My brother Jeff & I work around each other's schedules as much as we can.  We might still end up playing at the same time 10 hours a week and just each take certain buy-in levels to play.  voss1313 has moved to cash games on Cake because of this issue.  I used to mostly work around my wife's schedule.  She works in a hospital & works a lot of different shifts.  That simply isn't the case anymore.  A lot of the hours she works there simply isn't enough traffic to at least come close to maximizing my hourly, as there aren't as many Europeans on the sites I play now.  Then there's the issue of working around my bro.  My schedule in a given week before April 15th might look something like this with breaks during the shifts:

Sun: 10a-noon
Mon: 7a-4p
Tue: noon-9p
Wed: 8a-5p
Thur: 2:45p-11:45p
Fri: 10a-2p
Sat: 10a-noon

Now it looks something like this:
Sun: 10p-4a
Mon: 2p-7p, 10p-4a
Tue: 2p-6:30p, 10p-4a
Wed: 2p-4p, 7p-2a
Thur: 4:30p-2a

I used to pretty much always go up to bed at the same time as my wife.  We'd watch a TV show or the news before bed.  I def like watching TV before bed.  Now I finish playing, do some stuff on the computer for an hour and try to sneak into the bedroom without waking my wife at 5am, unless it was a weekend where we might go to bed at the same time.  That is unless it's today.  My wife works the early shift & is upstairs showering while I type a blog at 4:30 am.  My 4 legged son just came into my office & probably has to take a growler so I better go let him outside.

Conclusion: Online poker in the US is not dead.  Many of you who made a living playing poker before Black Friday will continue to do so.  Others can still play online poker as a 2nd source of income.  We've known for years that online poker in the US wasn't the most stable industry since our government is ran by Nazis w/ no idea how to set priorities.  If you didn't save as much money as you could before Black Friday, learn your lesson & start saving now.  Instead of spending half your annual income on a car, make an investment.  Be smart & you'll probably be ok.

A lot of people have been asking me when Cake is adding 300 chip 6 man/9 man hyper turbo SNGs & 500 chip HU hyper turbo SNGs.  The truth is I don't know.  They were originally going to be adding them in April.  However, they seem to have shifted their priorities.  I have urged them to make this a top priority as much as I can.  Due to their popularity I think adding these structures should be the #1 priority in terms of SNG changes.  However, I just have a deal w/ Cake.  I don't work for them.  While they often listen to my suggestions, they certainly don't have to.  While I'm pretty sure they still plan on adding these structures, I don't really know where it ranks on their priority list.  If you want these structures I would recommend emailing support@cakepoker.com.  If a lot of people email maybe they'll realize the demand for these games is huge & they need to be a top priority.

GL,
Hub

My results by year:

Year 2010:
1,759.11 hrs
SNG Profit: $134,514.80
Rakeback/Bonuses: $134,412.98
Total Yearly Profit: $268,927.78

Year 2009:
Hours: 1,577.65
SNG Profit: $(22,746.37)
Rakeback/Bonuses: $213,977.09
Total SNG Profit: $191,230.72
Staking: $42,219.80
Total Yearly Profit: $233,450.52

Year 2008 Online:
Hours: 1510.88
SNG Profit: $277,395.86
Rakeback/Bonuses: $178,589.61
Total SNG Profit: $455,985.47
Staking: $121,573.29
Total Yearly Profit: $577,558.76

Year 2007 Online:
Total Online Poker Profit: $251,388.84 (no staking in 2007)
Year 2011: Time will tell.